There are three modeling methods used that combine to form UCF's enrollment and degree projections. Follow the links below for a detailed description of each of the methods:

Detailed Enrollment Prediction Model: Headcount, SCH, FTE for 2006-2011

The Detailed Enrollment Prediction Model uses the previous 10 years of retention rates to estimate the number of returning students, combined with the projected number of new students. The model generates overall headcount estimates through for the academic years 2006-2011. Historical participation rates are then applied to these headcounts to determine student credit hour and FTE projections. The framework for this model is depicted below:

Enrollment Projection Extension Model: Headcount, SCH, FTE for 2012-2018

The Enrollment Projection Extension Model requires the use of estimates of demand growth for university education. The model uses a combination of population growth and projected high school degrees awarded. The time-adjusted growth factors using the average of the population-based and the high school-based growth rates are summarized below:

Program Headcount and Degree Projection Model: Degrees for 2005-2015

The Program Headcount and Degree Projection Model develops program level headcount projections for 10 years by using three different models applied to five years of historical data. Degree production was estimated by applying the historical degree production rate to the program enrollment projections. These were provided to the colleges for review and modification. Note that the enrollment projections referenced here were only used as part of the degree modeling method.