Overview of the Enrollment Projections Extension Model:

The detailed enrollment prediction model provides fundable headcount and FTE estimates by classification and level for 2006-07 through 2011-12. The enrollment projection extension model applies an appropriate Lower, Upper, or Graduate growth factor for 2012-13 to the 2011-12 estimates and repeats the process on an annual basis until the 2018-19 estimates are obtained. The enrollment projections from 2012 through 2018 require the use of estimates of demand growth for university education. The model uses a combination of population growth and projected high school degrees awarded that is expected over that time period as a surrogate for demand growth.

UCF Enrollment Projection Extension Method:

The population projections were taken from the Population Projections by Age and County (Office of Economic and Demographic Research, 2006.) The data used included the projections by county for persons in the 18-24 and 25-44 age groups.

The numbers of expected high school degree graduates (standard diplomas) over the planning horizon were obtained from Projected Florida High School Graduates, 2005-2006—2020-2021 (Florida Department of Education, 2006). These projections were used to compute the growth in the expected number of graduates in selected counties.

Because growth rates vary by county, the relevant UCF growth rates were developed by focusing on the counties that are currently the primary source of the university’s students. These sources varied based on the admission type of the student. The Lower Level includes all First Time In College (FTIC) students plus one-third of the Other Transfer (OT) students. The Upper Level includes all Community College Transfers (CCT) plus two-thirds of the Other Transfer students. In addition to the 11-county service region (Orange, Seminole, Brevard, Volusia, Osceola, Lake, Sumter, Citrus, Flagler, Levy, Marion), a significant number of new students attend UCF from Broward, Dade, Palm Beach, and Pinellas counties.

Using the population and the high school graduate growth data, a composite annual growth rate was computed for each of the regions:

The overall growth rate for each student type (FTIC, CCT, OT) was computed to account for the time since high school graduation until college entry (0 years for FTIC, 2 years for CCT, and 4 years for Graduate) to compute a better estimate of the effective growth rate for the entering student cohort. These estimates were combined to estimate the growth rates for Lower Level, Upper Level, and Graduate students. The time-adjusted growth factors using the average of the population-based and the high school-based growth rates are summarized below. Growth factors are included for all years in the planning horizon, but only those factors for 2011-12 and later are used for the projections. The dip in the growth rates in 2011-12 and 2013-14 is related to the expected decrease in high school graduates in 2011 associated with a large number of third grade students not being advanced in 2000 due to low FCAT scores. Although those individual students may not be in the applicant pool, the rates apply to the total standard diploma graduates.

The time-adjusted average growth factors are applied to the 2011-12 predicted enrollments by level results in the overall university level fundable Fall enrollment and fundable annual FTE projections.