Overview of the Enrollment Projections
Extension Model
The detailed enrollment prediction
model provides fundable headcount and FTE estimates by classification
and level for the next five years. The enrollment projection extension
model applies an appropriate Lower, Upper, or Graduate growth
factor for the following year from the fifth-year estimates and
repeats the process on an annual basis until estimates for the
next five years are obtained. These longer-term enrollment projections
require the use of estimates of demand growth for university education.
The model uses a combination of population growth and projected
high school degrees awarded that are expected over that period
of time as a surrogate for demand growth.
UCF Enrollment Projection Extension Method
The population projections were
taken from the Population Projections by Age and County from the
. The data
used included the projections by county for persons in the 18-24
and 25-44 age groups.
The numbers of expected high school graduates
(standard diplomas) over the planning horizon were obtained from
the Florida Department of Education’s report. These
projections were used to compute the growth in the expected number
of graduates in selected counties.
Because growth rates vary by county, the relevant
UCF growth rates were developed by focusing on the counties that
are currently the primary source of the university’s students.
These sources varied based on the admission type of the student.
The Lower Level includes all First Time In College (FTIC) students
plus one-third of the Other Transfer (OT) students. The Upper
Level includes all Community College Transfers (CCT) plus two-thirds
of the Other Transfer students. In addition to the 11-county service
region (Orange, Seminole, Brevard, Volusia, Osceola, Lake, Sumter,
Citrus, Flagler, Levy, Marion), a significant number of new students
attend UCF from Broward, Dade, Palm Beach, and Pinellas counties.
Using the population and the high
school graduate growth data, a composite annual growth rate was
computed for each of the regions:
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11-County Service Region |
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Broward, Dade, Palm Beach,
Pinellas
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Other Florida
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Non-FL USA
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Non-USA
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The overall growth rate for each
student type (FTIC, CCT, OT) was computed to account for the
time since high school graduation until college entry (0 years
for FTIC, 2 years for CCT, and 4 years for Graduate) to compute
a better estimate of the effective growth rate for the entering
student cohort. These estimates were combined to estimate the
growth rates for Lower Level, Upper Level, and Graduate students.
The time-adjusted growth factors using the average of the population-based
and the high school-based growth rates are summarized below.
Growth factors are included for all years in the planning horizon,
but only those factors for the fifth year of the Detailed Enrollment
Projections model and later are used for the projections. The
dip in the growth rates in 2011-12 and 2013-14 is related to
the expected decrease in high school graduates in 2011 associated
with a large number of third grade students not being advanced
in 2000 due to low FCAT scores. Although those individual students
may not be in the applicant pool, the rates apply to the total
standard diploma graduates.
The time-adjusted average growth
factors are applied to the fifth-year predicted enrollments by
level results in the overall university level fundable Fall enrollment
and fundable annual FTE projections.
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