Overview
of the Program Headcount and Degree Projection Model
(Conducted in AY 2005)
Estimates of program enrollment and degree production must
necessarily be based on strong program input. Rather than
require programs to generate these estimates from a blank
sheet, initial estimates were provided to all programs using
a consistent approach. In order to obtain the maximum value
from program input, the estimates were provided at the HEGIS
code level since this is where real program knowledge resides.
Program Headcount Estimation Model
Using five years of Fall enrollment data from Fall 2000 through
Fall 2004, 10 year enrollment projections were developed using
three separate models. A linear model (constant growth rate)
and a logarithmic model (decreasing growth rate) were developed
using a least squares fit to the data. The third model mirrored
the overall university growth rate in the university level
model. The average of these three projections was used as
the initial enrollment estimates for each degree level (including
certificates). Enrollment projections were also included for
unclassified students in each HEGIS code as well as undeclared
students. These enrollment headcounts were used only as a
factor to determine degree projections and are therefore not
reported here.
The directions from the state indicated that counts should
be first majors only. In practice, most students declare a
second major or minor close to the time that they file an
intent to graduate form. The number of declared double majors
is small relative to the inherent enrollment projection error
so no effort was made to separate those students. Additionally,
there is no reasonable way to separate the associated FTE.
Program Degree Estimation Model
Initial estimates of degree production at the program were
computed by applying the five year historical program degree
production rate to the program enrollment projections. The
degree production rate was computed by dividing the sum of
the degrees awarded during the period by the sum of the fall
enrollments during the period. This method provides the optimal
estimate of the degree production rate, provided that the
underlying rate is constant.
Model Implementation
The enrollment and degree estimates were developed and presented
to the programs in an Excel format. Using a designed template,
a VBA macro read five years of historical enrollment and degree
data using a table lookup function, then computed the parameters
for the prediction functions for all degree levels, created
the associated graphs, and saved the worksheet under the HEGIS
code name. A separate worksheet was created for each HEGIS
code. The enrollment and degree projections for each degree
level were read into a consolidated worksheet to provide a
composite summary.
College Review and Modification of Program Estimates
The enrollment and degree estimates were delivered to the
programs for review. Colleges were asked to review each program
and either accept or modify the enrollment and degree estimates
that had been computed. Some program representatives adopted
the projections made with the model. In other cases, programs
used their best judgment to make modifications that reflect
local plans for the program. The program representatives delivered
their changes either electronically by making changes in the
Excel sheets, by making handwritten changes on paper printouts,
or by communicating the changes in email text or verbal conversations
with UAPS. The next two graphics describe the process flow.
Overall
Process Flow for Program Headcount and Degree Projections
Example
Degree Projection Model
|
