Enrollment planning is a central activity in the planning and evaluation functions at the University of Central Florida. As a large, metropolitan research university, multiple enrollment planning approaches are required to fulfill the needs of its many constituents and planning horizons. This university is in a high growth environment, and as such, it is essential that planning models exist in order to manage the growth. However, modeling in this environment is also more difficult than modeling in a stable environment.

Enrollment planning is an essential element of both strategic planning and operational planning at the University of Central Florida. Ten-year enrollment projections have been an integral part of the Campus Master Plan and form the strategic vision for the number of students and the type of programs that are expected in the future. For the past three years, enrollment models have been developed to refine the long-term enrollment projections. Because of the realized future limited capacity of the Orlando campus, the enrollment plans must be refined to account for the desired mix and level of programs on the Orlando campus, on the regional campuses, and in the distance learning program offerings. Enrollment planning activities generate enrollment and degree estimates in the following areas:

At UCF, there is an important distinction between long-term strategic enrollment planning and short-term operational enrollment planning that reflects user needs and respects the fact that future information is less certain. That distinction mandates the use of different modeling and planning approaches. Long-term enrollment planning has been used to support budget requests, master planning, strategic planning, applications for water use permits, and transportation studies. Short-term enrollment planning has been used to support budget allocations, semester enrollment projections, admissions policies, course planning, retention studies, and predicting the number of graduates for commencement ceremony planning.

Primary responsibility for university-level enrollment planning at UCF is assigned to the office of University Analysis and Planning Support (UAPS). The major enrollment planning model uses annual survivor fractions for 10 years of entering cohorts to estimate fall returning students. New student estimates from the Director of Undergraduate Admissions and from the Dean of Graduate Studies provide new student estimates. A Markov-type transition fraction is used to estimate returning students in the spring and summer semesters. The estimates are tuned to improve accuracy and the model is applied to generate five years of headcount, student credit hour, and full time equivalent (FTE) projections [Detailed Enrollment Projections]. The FTE estimates form the basis of the university's budget request to the Board of Governors and the student credit hour estimates are used by several units to determine needed fee levels in developing their next year budgets.

The fifth year projections are extended in another model to develop 10 year projections of headcount and FTE [Extended Projections]. This model uses predicted high school graduation rates and estimated population growth rates for those geographic areas served by the university to extend the predictions for five additional years. The FTE projections also include a distribution of FTE by campus that is used for campus planning purposes both locally and by the Board of Governors. The 10-year headcount projections are a vital part of the campus master planning process, influencing what kinds of facilities and student support services will be required in the future. The same ten year estimates are used to support financial reviews for determining the rating of construction bonds and are used by local investors and planners to determine what kinds of community infrastructure (e.g., apartments, stores) will be necessary in the future.

The university recently completed its second university-wide program enrollment and degree planning effort to estimate the enrollment and degree production in individual programs for 10 years [Degree Projections]. This provides baseline data on where programs are headed and provides an opportunity for the university to determine what new authority may be needed to direct degree production in particular directions. The Board of Governors is using these data to assess overall degree production throughout the state and determine what kinds of changes may be necessary to increase the production of targeted degrees to meet the goals of the SUS Strategic Plan. The detailed program enrollment and degree planning relied on the ongoing program-level planning information that has been gathered in individual departments and by the Dean of Graduate Studies.

Enrollment planning also involves special studies to examine how students utilize regional campuses and supporting initiatives to improve access to regional campuses [Main and Regional Campus Projections]. Enrollment planning helps to determine the necessary capacity at those campuses and identify when particular regional campus activity should be initiated. This enrollment planning directly supports strategic objective 6.1 in the university's 2002-2007 strategic plan.

As noted above, enrollment planning provides the basis for degree planning for supporting the SUS Board of Governors' strategic plan. The same degree planning provides direct support for determining the number of graduation ceremonies each semester. That degree planning was a critical element in a recent study to determine the design capacity of a new convocation center.

To complement the analytic modeling, an Enrollment Planning Workgroup that addresses potential policy issues affecting enrollment and retention. Primary among these are program mix and program size. Additionally, the workgroup examines alternative structures to facilitate a student's progress through a program. Recently, the workgroup has focused heavily on was to improve the production of degrees that have been targeted for growth.

In summary, enrollment and degree planning, directed by UAPS, provides a driving component in determining university admissions policies, enrollment management policies, budget preparation, campus master planning, operational and regulatory planning, and strategic planning, both at the university and the state levels.